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Daily Fantasy Football Primer – Week 11

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Hello friends, and welcome to this (new) tradition, certain to be unlike any other, the NoTicket Sports Daily Fantasy Football Primer for DraftKings and FanDuel. Each week, the intent of this column will be to breakdown the NFL slate position by position, and provide you with the players that you should be targeting in your cash games and tournaments.

 

QUARTERBACK

Andrew Luck – Recommending Luck should come as no surprise at this point in the season, he’s on an absolute tear and gets to face the porous Tennessee Titans’ secondary at home in Week 11.  While the Colts have faced a lot of criticism for having an extremely inept offensive line, they’re finally returning to full health and have been protecting Luck with great success over the past several weeks.  With his wide receiving corps also returning to full health, you have to give strong consideration to using Luck in your cash games and most certainly have exposure to him in your tournaments.  I love the chances of Luck eclipsing 300+ passing yards and tossing multiple touchdowns in this likely shootout.

Marcus Mariota – Not going to waste any time getting the other side of this Colts/Titans game.  Mariota is arguably the hottest quarterback in football over the past several weeks.  Throwing for multiple touchdowns in six straight weeks, I love his chances of continuing his hot streak against a Colts defense that ranks terribly defending the pass and could very well be without top cornerback Vontae Davis.  As mentioned with Luck, I plan on stacking this game a variety of different ways in my tournaments, and I’ll be pairing both quarterbacks here with DeMarco Murray, Delanie Walker, T.Y. Hilton, and Donte Moncrief in various combinations.

Kirk Cousins – If you’re playing on DraftKings this weekend, you’re going to need to save some salary in a week that offers very little value in terms of the running back and wide receiver positions.  Cousins comes in at a significant discount to the aforementioned options, and he should have no issue picking apart the atrocious Green Bay secondary on Sunday night.  The other likely shootout of the weekend is this Redskins/Packers game, and Kirk has a solid chance of tossing for 300+ yards against this Green Bay team that’s very strong against the run but weak against the pass.  Coming off an embarrassing loss to the Titans, expect Green Bay to put up their fair share of points which will force Cousins to be chucking it for most of the game.

Aaron Rodgers – If you’re comfortable with spending all the way up for quarterback this week, Rodgers is an excellent option on the road against the Redskins on Sunday night.  The Packers are currently 2.5 point underdogs, and Rodgers has put together four insanely impressive weeks in a row.  Still lacking a reliable running back, I expect Green Bay to continue to rely on Rodgers to keep them involved in games, which should lead to plenty of fantasy goodness.  He’s another solid bet to throw for 300+ passing yards and multiple touchdowns, but I’ll likely be taking my chances with Luck, Mariota, and Cousins for cheaper.

Also Consider: Tom Brady, Blake Bortles, Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger

 

RUNNING BACK

Le’Veon Bell – Two weeks ago, we had “Zeke Week” when the Cowboys faced the atrocious Browns run defense, and in Week 11, we have Le’Veon Bell in the same matchup as the Steelers travel to Cleveland.  Considering the forecast in Cleveland is calling for sustained winds that will likely affect the passing game, I expect the Steelers to heavily rely on Bell this week.  Also averaging over 9 targets per game, Bell offers one of the highest floors of any player at any position on the slate, and also one of the highest probabilities to get in the end zone.  I’ll be staring my cash game teams with Bell, and I’ll have heavy exposure to him in my tournament lineups, too.  Get some.

Spencer Ware – Finally back at full health and resuming his feature back duties, I absolutely love Spencer Ware at home this week against the funnel defense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Chiefs are whopping 7.5 point favorites and heavily utilize the run game in situations like these.  Next to Bell, Spencer Ware is my favorite running back play of the week, and I’ll be doing whatever I can to pair these guys in cash games and tournaments.  His price has dropped steadily over the last several weeks while recovering from injury, offering the perfect opportunity and matchup to jump back on board.

C.J. Prosise – Once again, I’m going to single out DraftKings, as Prosise is the glaringly obvious running back value of the week, and he’s certain to be extremely popular.  The Seahawks have gone very pass heavy in their play calling over the last several weeks, which will keep Prosise firmly in play.  After releasing Christine Michael, and projected to ease Thomas Rawls back into action, Seattle appears committed to utilizing Prosise on the ground and also his incredible pass catching skills, as well.  For only $4,200 on DraftKings, he’s an easy lock-and-load in cash games, and a tough fade in tournaments.

DeMarco Murray – Previously mentioned along with Marcus Mariota, I love Murray this week in a likely shootout in Indianapolis.  The Titans will look to establish the run early, as they always do, and even if they do fall behind, Murray is heavily involved in the passing game.  When playing running backs, you’d like them to be independent of game flow, and Murray is one of the perfect examples of players who will be involved whether his team is winning or losing.  Oh, did I forget to mention that the Colts are ranked dead last against opposing running backs in fantasy points?  Yeah.  They also allow the 8th most receiving yards to opposing running backs. Stack him up with Mariota and/or Luck.

LeGarrette Blount – Well, we’re going back to the well with taking running backs against the San Francisco 49ers.  David Johnson’s upside was capped by some horrendous play calling last week, but don’t expect Bill Belichick to make the same mistake here.  With Gronkowski and Chris Hogan ruled out and Brady slightly hobbled, I expect a heavy dose of Blount this week.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see 20 touches for Blount in this game, and he’s almost assured to get in the end zone once, maybe multiple times.  He’s an extraordinary play on FanDuel, where touchdowns are more favored than receptions.

Also Consider: Ezekiel Elliott, LeSean McCoy, David Johnson, Theo Riddick, Darren Sproles, Doug Martin

 

WIDE RECEIVER

Odell Beckham – Finally stringing together multiple solid games, ODB slots in as the top wide receiver play of the week.  He gets to face the Bears’ secondary.  They sold out to double-team Mike Evans last week, but Beckham runs his routes from both sides of the field and in the slot, and will likely escape that treatment this week.  ODB has been absolutely incredible at home, making him a very attractive play this week, especially in a stack with QB Eli Manning.  Seeing 9+ targets in 8 straight games, Beckham has a workload that we can accurately project, and upside we need to climb the leaderboards in tournaments.

A.J. Green – Another wide receiver with a massive target projection is A.J. Green, who has seen eight or more in every game this season.  Last year, the Bills sold out to double-team Green, but they lost the game by double digits and it may not be a strategy that Rex Ryan goes back to – not to mention, the Bills are ranked dead last versus opposing #1 wide receivers on the season.  With lots of attention likely going to Odell Beckham and Antonio Brown, I like taking the price savings with Green and differentiating my lineups.

T.Y. Hilton/Donte Moncrief – There’s really not much that needs to be said about either of these dudes.  Both have incredible matchups against the Titans secondary, and both of them are capable of feasting in the same game.  In their first meeting this season, Hilton dusted the Titans for a line of 7-133-1, albeit without Moncrief in the lineup.  However, there will be plenty of balls to go around in this one, and I’ll be deploying both of them in my tournament lineups.  I love Moncrief in cash games this week, as his price is cheaper than Hilton’s, and I’ll be choosing to pay up at running back.  Moncrief has 8 touchdowns in his last 10 games with Andrew Luck under center.

Davante Adams – With Jordy Nelson likely drawing Josh Norman for most of the game, I believe that Adams will become Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target on Sunday night against Washington. Similar to Moncrief, I like Adams’ price when compared to Nelson’s, too, and he’s a guy that I’ll be targeting heavily in my cash game and tournament lineups.  He’s a solid bet to eclipse 100+ receiving yards, and he also has multiple touchdown upside that you need in tournaments.

Mike Evans – Back to the well.  I had so much exposure to Evans last week and he was virtually shutdown in double coverage all game.  I wasn’t the only one, and it may be difficult for some players to get that out of their minds this week.  That would be a mistake.  With the Chiefs set to score on Tampa Bay early and often, look for Evans to be a favorite target of Jameis Winston as he tries to dig his team out of a gigantic hole.  I’m expecting double-digit targets and a high touchdown probability, while avoiding the coverage of stud cornerback Marcus Peters.  Excellent tournament option.

Also Consider: Antonio Brown, Allen Robinson, Julian Edelman, Stefon Diggs, Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, Jamison Crowder

 

TIGHT END

Martellus Bennett – Bennett is the glaringly obvious tight end value play of the week.  With both Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan sidelined, expect Bennett to be featured heavily in the passing game by Tom Brady while they establish a massive lead in San Francisco.  He’s super cheap across the industry and he should be a cash game staple this week.  Get him in there.

Jordan Reed – If you’re willing to spend up at tight end, start with Jordan Reed.  He has an excellent matchup against Green Bay, and he remains the favorite target of Kirk Cousins.  I’ll be stacking him with Cousins in tournaments, and I’m giving heavy consideration to doing the same in cash games.  He has massive multiple touchdown upside and could be in line for a huge game in this likely shootout.

Delanie Walker – Coming off a massive Week 10 and being featured in the game with the highest over/under of the week, I expect Delanie Walker to be a very popular play this week.  You can project him to receive somewhere around eight targets, and he has a high chance of eclipsing 100+ receiving yards and finding the end zone.  He’s easily Mariota’s favorite target and they make for an incredible stack.  Pair them up with DeMarco Murray, T.Y. Hilton and/or Donte Moncrief for a game stack.

Also Consider: Tyler Eifert, Eric Ebron, Zach Miller, Jimmy Graham

 

D/ST

Lions – Insert team facing Blake Bortles and the Jaguars here.  Seriously, if you’ve been streaming defenses against Jacksonville this season, you’re making money.  Blake is always effective in garbage time, but he’s also very consistent in how much he turns the ball over.

Chiefs – Jameis on the road. Oh boy.  You always want to consider the Chiefs when they’re at home, and this week is no different.  Winston is a very turnover quarterback, and even more so when he travels away from Florida.  Stack them up with Spencer Ware for a nice correlation play.

Giants – Santa Cutler is coming to town!  No Alshon Jeffery either! Cutler remains a gunslinger and one of the most turnover prone signal callers in the NFL. The Giants defense is finally peaking, and I expect a massive performance from them in Week 11 at MetLife Stadium.

Also Consider: Dolphins, Rams, Vikings, Cardinals, Seahawks

 


FINAL THOUGHTS

A very intriguing week of NFL DFS is on tap for Week 11, without a tremendous amount of value in existence.  FanDuel’s pricing remains soft, and you’ll be able to fit in your studs with ease over there.  On DraftKings, however, I think the best route to attack your cash games is by paying down at quarterback for Kirk Cousins, slamming in Le’Veon Bell and C.J. Prosise, and mixing in your favorite mid-range wide receivers and tight ends.

Best of luck in your contests this week, and stay sharp out there.

You can find me on Twitter @_ryanpaulsen for more DFS nonsense.

Author: Ryan Paulsen